Iraq 2026 — TMT & FDP Research Portal

Executive Overview

Two parallel DFI assignments — an EBRD telecom/digital infrastructure market study and an IFC displaced persons employment assessment — covering Iraq's TMT sector and forcibly displaced population across five governorates. Eight research streams complete, producing a scored investment pipeline of 12 opportunities across 4 tiers.

The highest-leverage finding is structural: CMC (Communications and Media Commission) reform is prerequisite for 4 of 12 investment opportunities and simultaneously unlocks mobile money access for 251,000 working-age displaced persons. One reform, one regulator, serves both contracts — recommend as a joint EBRD-IFC policy dialogue.

ITPC backbone monopoly ($24/MB official vs ~$4/MB shadow market) constrains 5 of 12 scored opportunities. Reform of this single entity transforms the entire market-size calculation for data centers, broadband, and digital services.

18 data gaps require interview validation before final scoring. 10 are EBRD-track (operator/regulator interviews), 8 are IFC-track (employer surveys, regulatory confirmation). Interview infrastructure is being built to support AI-augmented data collection.

EBRD TMT Market Study

5 research streams — telecom, infrastructure, regulatory, fintech, investment framework

S4 — Telecom Operator & Tower Landscape EBRD

v1.0 complete · medium confidence

Zain-Asiacell duopoly ~80% combined ($1.29B + $1.42B); TASC 1.1x tenancy vs 1.3-1.5x benchmark; Korek distressed (>$3B arbitration)

Open HTML

S5 — Digital Infrastructure Assessment EBRD

v1.0 complete · medium confidence

2→5-6 submarine cables by 2027 (900 Tbps); IRAQ-IXP 3rd largest ME (28 networks, 180 Gbps); Zero carrier-neutral DCs, <15 hrs/day power

Open HTML

S6 — Regulatory & Policy Analysis EBRD

v1.0 complete · medium confidence

Entire regime on CPA Order 65 (2004); ITPC monopoly 6x pricing; CMC independence: 5/6 political appointees

Open HTML

S7 — Technology, Media & Fintech EBRD

v2.0 complete · medium confidence

Zain Cash 1M+ users, BNPL roadmap; No payment switch — wallet siloing; ~57% cumulative ISP tax

Open HTML

S8 — Investment Opportunity Framework EBRD

v1.0 complete · high confidence

CMC Reform TA scored 82/100; Payment switch (78) + DC Baghdad (75) Tier 1; Korek & NMTC on Watch List

Open HTML

IFC FDP Employment Assessment

3 research streams — labor supply, private sector demand, enabling environment

S9 — FDP Labor Supply Analysis IFC

v1.0 complete · medium confidence

251K working-age FDPs (191K refugees + 61K IDPs); Construction 38K, Services 37K largest pools; 55% work below qualification

Open HTML

S10 — KRI Private Sector Demand IFC

v1.0 complete · medium confidence

Construction highest-demand across all governorates; 65% employers provide zero training; KRI fiscal squeeze: 32% planned hiring increases

Open HTML

S11 — Enabling Environment & Investment Case IFC

v1.1 complete · medium confidence

KRI 75% local-worker quota binding constraint; Financial inclusion 19%, CBI KYC excludes refugees; Six investee profiles: $15-31.5M, 1,700-4,400 FDP jobs

Open HTML

Cross-Contract Analysis

Graphify Cross-Domain Traverse

47 entities · 56 edges · 6 findings

Open Interactive Graph

Key Findings

Cross-domain patterns surfaced from entity graph traversal

Highest leverage

CMC Reform Cascade

CMC reform → payment switch → Zain Cash → 251K FDP mobile money access

Cross-contract

Construction Labor Bridge

Tower build demand + 38K FDP supply + KRI quota constraint

Critical blocker

Regulatory Double-Lock

SIM reg + CBI KYC = dual barrier to FDP finance

Infrastructure

DC Chain

Submarine cables → Al-Faw → DC Baghdad → digital services → 5.5K FDP IT jobs

Scenario variable

ITPC Universal Constraint

6x pricing distortion constrains 5/12 opportunities

Economic

~57% Tax Burden

Cumulative ISP tax suppresses all connectivity-dependent cases

Interview Status

18 data gaps requiring validation before final scoring

#	Gap	Stream	Tier	Status
1	ITPC backbone utilization & pricing	S5	1 (Human)	Pending
2	Shadow bandwidth market volume	S5	1 (Human)	Pending
3	TASC tower build pipeline 2026	S4	1 (Human)	Pending
4	Korek resolution timeline	S4	1 (Human)	Pending
5	CMC independence reform status	S6	1 (Human)	Pending
6	Draft telecom law progress	S6	1 (Human)	Pending
7	Zain Cash agent network scale	S7	2 (Portal)	Pending
8	Payment switch regulatory appetite	S7	1 (Human)	Pending
9	EarthLink FTTH activation rate	S5	2 (Portal)	Pending
10	DC Baghdad power solution feasibility	S5	1 (Human)	Pending
11	KRI employer training willingness	S10	2 (Portal)	Pending
12	Construction sector wage data by governorate	S10	2 (Portal)	Pending
13	Refugee work permit processing time	S11	1 (Human)	Pending
14	KRI quota enforcement variability	S11	1 (Human)	Pending
15	CBI KYC reform appetite	S11	1 (Human)	Pending
16	IFC investee pipeline validation	S11	2 (Portal)	Pending
17	FDP skills certification recognition	S9	2 (Portal)	Pending
18	SIM registration FDP workaround	S6/S11	3 (AI)	Pending