Skills Supply Profile: Forcibly Displaced Persons in Iraq

{
  "assessment_id": "IFC-IRQ-S9-2026-Q2",
  "reference_date": "2026-04-01",
  "data_sources": ["DS-01", "DS-02", "DS-08", "DS-10"],
  "population_baseline": {
    "Erbil": {
      "entity_type": "geography",
      "entity_id": "GEO-ERB",
      "region": "KRI",
      "refugees": {
        "total": 152000,
        "syrian": 140000,
        "other_nationality": 12000,
        "camp": 45600,
        "urban_periurban": 106400,
        "confidence": "high",
        "source": "DS-01, DS-08"
      },
      "idps": {
        "total_in_camp": 18000,
        "total_out_of_camp": 28000,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "source": "DS-02, DS-10",
        "note": "Includes EMC (East Mosul Camp) residents. DTM data frozen Dec 2024; camp departures Jan-Jun 2025 (~1,017 families) partially reduce this estimate."
      }
    },
    "Duhok": {
      "entity_type": "geography",
      "entity_id": "GEO-DUH",
      "region": "KRI",
      "refugees": {
        "total": 82000,
        "syrian": 78000,
        "other_nationality": 4000,
        "camp": 32800,
        "urban_periurban": 49200,
        "confidence": "high",
        "source": "DS-01, DS-08"
      },
      "idps": {
        "total_in_camp": 22000,
        "total_out_of_camp": 15000,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "source": "DS-02, DS-10",
        "note": "Duhok hosts highest concentration of Yazidi IDPs from Sinjar. Darkar camp active."
      }
    },
    "Sulaymaniyah": {
      "entity_type": "geography",
      "entity_id": "GEO-SUL",
      "region": "KRI",
      "refugees": {
        "total": 42000,
        "syrian": 38000,
        "other_nationality": 4000,
        "camp": 8400,
        "urban_periurban": 33600,
        "confidence": "high",
        "source": "DS-01, DS-08"
      },
      "idps": {
        "total_in_camp": 5500,
        "total_out_of_camp": 8000,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "source": "DS-02"
      }
    },
    "Kirkuk": {
      "entity_type": "geography",
      "entity_id": "GEO-KIR",
      "region": "Federal",
      "refugees": {
        "total": 4500,
        "syrian": 3800,
        "other_nationality": 700,
        "camp": 0,
        "urban_periurban": 4500,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "source": "DS-01"
      },
      "idps": {
        "total_in_camp": 0,
        "total_out_of_camp": 3200,
        "confidence": "low",
        "source": "DS-02",
        "note": "Ashti and Tazade IDP camps closed Jul/Mar 2024. Remaining IDPs in urban/informal settings."
      }
    },
    "Ninewa": {
      "entity_type": "geography",
      "entity_id": "GEO-NIN",
      "region": "Federal",
      "refugees": {
        "total": 3000,
        "syrian": 2500,
        "other_nationality": 500,
        "camp": 0,
        "urban_periurban": 3000,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "source": "DS-01"
      },
      "idps": {
        "total_in_camp": 2800,
        "total_out_of_camp": 12000,
        "confidence": "low",
        "source": "DS-02",
        "note": "Ninewa is primary area of origin for IDPs. Returnee conditions severe per DTM Return Index."
      }
    }
  },
  "national_totals": {
    "refugees_asylum_seekers": 347000,
    "refugees_syrian": 305000,
    "refugees_pct_syrian": 0.88,
    "refugees_pct_in_kri": 0.81,
    "idps_target_geographies": 114500,
    "idps_in_camp": 48300,
    "idps_out_of_camp": 66200
  }
}

{
  "demographics": {
    "refugees_national": {
      "gender": {
        "male_pct": 0.52,
        "female_pct": 0.48,
        "confidence": "high",
        "source": "DS-01, DS-08"
      },
      "age_bands_working_age": {
        "18_25": {
          "pct_of_total": 0.18,
          "est_count": 62460,
          "male_pct": 0.54,
          "female_pct": 0.46,
          "entity_id": "POP-REF-18-25"
        },
        "26_40": {
          "pct_of_total": 0.25,
          "est_count": 86750,
          "male_pct": 0.52,
          "female_pct": 0.48,
          "entity_id": "POP-REF-26-40"
        },
        "41_plus": {
          "pct_of_total": 0.12,
          "est_count": 41640,
          "male_pct": 0.50,
          "female_pct": 0.50,
          "entity_id": "POP-REF-41+"
        }
      },
      "working_age_total": {
        "count": 190850,
        "pct_of_total_refugee_pop": 0.55,
        "confidence": "high"
      },
      "dependency_ratio": 0.82,
      "female_headed_households_pct": 0.18
    },
    "idps_target_geographies": {
      "gender": {
        "male_pct": 0.50,
        "female_pct": 0.50,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "source": "DS-02"
      },
      "age_bands_working_age": {
        "18_25": {
          "pct_of_total": 0.15,
          "est_count": 17175,
          "male_pct": 0.52,
          "female_pct": 0.48,
          "entity_id": "POP-IDP-18-25"
        },
        "26_40": {
          "pct_of_total": 0.22,
          "est_count": 25190,
          "male_pct": 0.51,
          "female_pct": 0.49,
          "entity_id": "POP-IDP-26-40"
        },
        "41_plus": {
          "pct_of_total": 0.16,
          "est_count": 18320,
          "male_pct": 0.49,
          "female_pct": 0.51,
          "entity_id": "POP-IDP-41+"
        }
      },
      "working_age_total": {
        "count": 60685,
        "pct_of_total_idp_pop": 0.53,
        "confidence": "medium"
      }
    }
  }
}

{
  "education_profile": {
    "refugees_working_age": {
      "no_formal_education": {
        "pct": 0.22,
        "est_count": 41987,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "source": "DS-03, DS-06"
      },
      "primary_only": {
        "pct": 0.28,
        "est_count": 53438,
        "confidence": "medium"
      },
      "secondary_incomplete": {
        "pct": 0.20,
        "est_count": 38170,
        "confidence": "medium"
      },
      "secondary_complete": {
        "pct": 0.16,
        "est_count": 30536,
        "confidence": "medium"
      },
      "vocational_technical": {
        "pct": 0.04,
        "est_count": 7634,
        "confidence": "low",
        "note": "TVET completion extremely low. Sulaymaniyah VT graduates showed zero employment participation per JVA 2018."
      },
      "university_tertiary": {
        "pct": 0.10,
        "est_count": 19085,
        "confidence": "medium"
      }
    },
    "idps_working_age": {
      "no_formal_education": { "pct": 0.18, "est_count": 10923, "confidence": "low" },
      "primary_only": { "pct": 0.25, "est_count": 15171, "confidence": "low" },
      "secondary_incomplete": { "pct": 0.22, "est_count": 13351, "confidence": "low" },
      "secondary_complete": { "pct": 0.18, "est_count": 10923, "confidence": "low" },
      "vocational_technical": { "pct": 0.05, "est_count": 3034, "confidence": "low" },
      "university_tertiary": { "pct": 0.12, "est_count": 7282, "confidence": "low" }
    }
  },
  "language_capabilities": {
    "refugees_syrian": {
      "kurmanji_kurdish": {
        "pct_fluent": 0.88,
        "pct_conversational": 0.07,
        "note": "Majority are Kurdish-origin Syrians; Kurmanji is primary L1. Sorani dialect (used in Sulaymaniyah/Erbil) requires adaptation period."
      },
      "sorani_kurdish": {
        "pct_fluent": 0.15,
        "pct_conversational": 0.35,
        "note": "Acquired through residence in KRI. Higher in Erbil/Sulaymaniyah cohorts."
      },
      "arabic": {
        "pct_fluent": 0.70,
        "pct_conversational": 0.20,
        "note": "Syrian Arabic widely spoken. Critical for Kirkuk/Ninewa employment."
      },
      "english": {
        "pct_fluent": 0.03,
        "pct_conversational": 0.08,
        "note": "Concentrated among university-educated urban refugees. Major barrier for INGO/private sector professional roles."
      },
      "turkish": {
        "pct_conversational": 0.05,
        "note": "Some border-area refugees from Afrin/Kobani corridor."
      }
    },
    "idps": {
      "arabic": { "pct_fluent": 0.65, "note": "Arab IDPs (Sunni) from Ninewa, Salah al-Din, Anbar." },
      "kurmanji_kurdish": { "pct_fluent": 0.25, "note": "Yazidi IDPs from Sinjar district." },
      "sorani_kurdish": { "pct_fluent": 0.10 },
      "english": { "pct_conversational": 0.05 }
    }
  }
}

{
  "governorate": "Erbil",
  "entity_id": "GEO-ERB",
  "working_age_total": {
    "refugees_syrian_male_18_25": 15200, "refugees_syrian_female_18_25": 12800,
    "refugees_syrian_male_26_40": 21000, "refugees_syrian_female_26_40": 19200,
    "refugees_syrian_male_41_plus": 8400, "refugees_syrian_female_41_plus": 7600,
    "idps_male_18_25": 3400, "idps_female_18_25": 3100,
    "idps_male_26_40": 5100, "idps_female_26_40": 4800,
    "idps_male_41_plus": 3700, "idps_female_41_plus": 3900
  },
  "skills_supply": {
    "construction": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-CON",
      "subsectors": {
        "civil": {
          "unskilled":     {"SYR_M_18_25": 2800, "SYR_F_18_25": 50,  "SYR_M_26_40": 3200, "SYR_F_26_40": 30,  "SYR_M_41+": 1200, "SYR_F_41+": 10, "IDP_M_18_25": 600, "IDP_F_18_25": 10, "IDP_M_26_40": 850, "IDP_F_26_40": 10, "IDP_M_41+": 500, "IDP_F_41+": 5, "confidence": "medium"},
          "semi_skilled":  {"SYR_M_18_25": 900,  "SYR_F_18_25": 10,  "SYR_M_26_40": 1800, "SYR_F_26_40": 15,  "SYR_M_41+": 900,  "SYR_F_41+": 5,  "IDP_M_18_25": 200, "IDP_F_18_25": 5,  "IDP_M_26_40": 400, "IDP_F_26_40": 5,  "IDP_M_41+": 350, "IDP_F_41+": 0, "confidence": "medium"},
          "skilled":       {"SYR_M_18_25": 150,  "SYR_F_18_25": 5,   "SYR_M_26_40": 600,  "SYR_F_26_40": 10,  "SYR_M_41+": 400,  "SYR_F_41+": 0,  "IDP_M_18_25": 40,  "IDP_F_18_25": 0,  "IDP_M_26_40": 120, "IDP_F_26_40": 0,  "IDP_M_41+": 150, "IDP_F_41+": 0, "confidence": "low"},
          "professional":  {"SYR_M_18_25": 10,   "SYR_F_18_25": 0,   "SYR_M_26_40": 80,   "SYR_F_26_40": 5,   "SYR_M_41+": 60,   "SYR_F_41+": 0,  "IDP_M_18_25": 5,   "IDP_F_18_25": 0,  "IDP_M_26_40": 20,  "IDP_F_26_40": 0,  "IDP_M_41+": 25,  "IDP_F_41+": 0, "confidence": "low"}
        },
        "electrical":    {"unskilled": 1100, "semi_skilled": 650, "skilled": 180, "professional": 30, "confidence": "low", "note": "Aggregated; male-dominated. ~95% male across all tiers."},
        "plumbing":      {"unskilled": 800,  "semi_skilled": 400, "skilled": 120, "professional": 15, "confidence": "low"},
        "welding":       {"unskilled": 600,  "semi_skilled": 350, "skilled": 100, "professional": 10, "confidence": "low"},
        "heavy_equipment": {"unskilled": 300, "semi_skilled": 150, "skilled": 80,  "professional": 5,  "confidence": "low"}
      },
      "sector_total_erbil": 18520,
      "note": "Construction is the primary sector of employment for male Syrian refugees in Erbil. Non-agricultural casual labor dominates. Pre-displacement experience in Syrian construction sector common among 26-40 cohort."
    },
    "manufacturing": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-MFG",
      "subsectors": {
        "cnc_machining":  {"unskilled": 200, "semi_skilled": 80,  "skilled": 25, "professional": 5, "confidence": "low"},
        "assembly":       {"unskilled": 1200, "semi_skilled": 500, "skilled": 80, "professional": 10, "confidence": "medium"},
        "quality_control": {"unskilled": 100, "semi_skilled": 60,  "skilled": 30, "professional": 15, "confidence": "low"},
        "packaging":      {"unskilled": 1800, "semi_skilled": 300, "skilled": 40, "professional": 5, "confidence": "medium"}
      },
      "sector_total_erbil": 4450,
      "gender_note": "Packaging and assembly show higher female participation (~20-25% in unskilled tier). Factory work conditions documented as exploitative — NRC reports wages below minimum, no contracts."
    },
    "agriculture": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-AGR",
      "subsectors": {
        "crop_production":       {"unskilled": 2500, "semi_skilled": 800, "skilled": 150, "professional": 20, "confidence": "medium"},
        "livestock":             {"unskilled": 800,  "semi_skilled": 300, "skilled": 60,  "professional": 10, "confidence": "low"},
        "irrigation":            {"unskilled": 400,  "semi_skilled": 150, "skilled": 40,  "professional": 5,  "confidence": "low"},
        "post_harvest_processing": {"unskilled": 600, "semi_skilled": 200, "skilled": 30, "professional": 5,  "confidence": "low"}
      },
      "sector_total_erbil": 6070,
      "note": "Seasonal/casual labor. Many Syrian refugees have pre-displacement agricultural experience. IDPs from rural Ninewa also carry agricultural skills. Climate stress (water scarcity, heat) constraining sector absorption."
    },
    "services": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-SVC",
      "subsectors": {
        "hospitality":  {"unskilled": 2200, "semi_skilled": 900, "skilled": 200, "professional": 30, "confidence": "medium"},
        "food_service":  {"unskilled": 3500, "semi_skilled": 1200, "skilled": 300, "professional": 40, "confidence": "medium"},
        "retail":       {"unskilled": 2800, "semi_skilled": 1000, "skilled": 250, "professional": 50, "confidence": "medium"},
        "cleaning":     {"unskilled": 3000, "semi_skilled": 400, "skilled": 30,  "professional": 0,  "confidence": "medium"},
        "security":     {"unskilled": 800,  "semi_skilled": 300, "skilled": 80,  "professional": 10, "confidence": "low"}
      },
      "sector_total_erbil": 17090,
      "note": "Largest sector by estimated supply. Food service and retail are primary livelihoods for urban refugees. Higher female participation in cleaning (est. 40%) and food service (est. 30%). Erbil's urban economy provides most service-sector opportunities in KRI."
    },
    "digital_it": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-DIG",
      "subsectors": {
        "data_entry":           {"unskilled": 800, "semi_skilled": 400, "skilled": 80,  "professional": 10, "confidence": "low"},
        "basic_computing":      {"unskilled": 600, "semi_skilled": 300, "skilled": 100, "professional": 15, "confidence": "low"},
        "software_development": {"unskilled": 50,  "semi_skilled": 30,  "skilled": 40,  "professional": 25, "confidence": "low"},
        "network_maintenance":  {"unskilled": 80,  "semi_skilled": 50,  "skilled": 30,  "professional": 10, "confidence": "low"}
      },
      "sector_total_erbil": 2620,
      "note": "Very small pool. University-educated refugees only. English proficiency is binding constraint. Potential growth area per IFC digital economy assessments."
    },
    "healthcare": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-HLT",
      "subsectors": {
        "nursing":          {"skilled": 120, "professional": 40, "confidence": "low"},
        "pharmacy":         {"skilled": 50,  "professional": 20, "confidence": "low"},
        "lab_tech":         {"skilled": 30,  "professional": 10, "confidence": "low"},
        "community_health": {"semi_skilled": 300, "skilled": 80, "professional": 15, "confidence": "low"}
      },
      "sector_total_erbil": 665,
      "note": "Credential recognition is the primary barrier. Syrian medical qualifications require KRI/Iraqi board equivalency. Community health workers trained by UNHCR/NGO programs represent most accessible pipeline."
    },
    "transport_logistics": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-TRN",
      "subsectors": {
        "driving":          {"unskilled": 1500, "semi_skilled": 800, "skilled": 200, "professional": 20, "confidence": "medium"},
        "warehousing":      {"unskilled": 900,  "semi_skilled": 300, "skilled": 60,  "professional": 10, "confidence": "low"},
        "fleet_management": {"semi_skilled": 50,  "skilled": 30,  "professional": 10, "confidence": "low"}
      },
      "sector_total_erbil": 3880,
      "note": "Driving license conversion from Syrian to Iraqi is a documented barrier. Many male refugees drive informally without valid license."
    },
    "professional": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-PRO",
      "subsectors": {
        "accounting":               {"skilled": 150, "professional": 80, "confidence": "low"},
        "teaching":                 {"skilled": 400, "professional": 200, "confidence": "medium", "note": "Teachers from Syrian curriculum; adaptation to KRI curriculum ongoing."},
        "translation_interpretation": {"skilled": 250, "professional": 100, "confidence": "medium", "note": "Kurmanji-Arabic-Sorani translation highly valued by INGOs."},
        "legal":                    {"skilled": 30,  "professional": 15,  "confidence": "low"}
      },
      "sector_total_erbil": 1225
    }
  }
}

{
  "governorate": "Duhok",
  "entity_id": "GEO-DUH",
  "working_age_total_est": {
    "refugees_working_age": 45100,
    "idps_working_age": 19600
  },
  "skills_supply": {
    "construction": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-CON",
      "total_supply": 11200,
      "breakdown": {
        "civil":           {"unskilled": 3800, "semi_skilled": 1600, "skilled": 400, "professional": 50},
        "electrical":      {"unskilled": 700,  "semi_skilled": 350, "skilled": 100, "professional": 15},
        "plumbing":        {"unskilled": 550,  "semi_skilled": 250, "skilled": 80,  "professional": 10},
        "welding":         {"unskilled": 500,  "semi_skilled": 300, "skilled": 90,  "professional": 10},
        "heavy_equipment": {"unskilled": 250,  "semi_skilled": 100, "skilled": 40,  "professional": 5}
      },
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note": "Domiz Camp (largest Syrian refugee camp in Iraq) is in Duhok. NRC documented below-minimum-wage construction work, unpaid overtime. Higher camp-based labor supply than other governorates."
    },
    "manufacturing": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-MFG",
      "total_supply": 2800,
      "breakdown": {
        "assembly":   {"unskilled": 800, "semi_skilled": 300, "skilled": 50, "professional": 5},
        "packaging":  {"unskilled": 1100, "semi_skilled": 200, "skilled": 25, "professional": 0},
        "cnc_machining": {"unskilled": 100, "semi_skilled": 40, "skilled": 15, "professional": 5},
        "quality_control": {"unskilled": 60, "semi_skilled": 30, "skilled": 15, "professional": 5}
      },
      "confidence": "low"
    },
    "agriculture": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-AGR",
      "total_supply": 5200,
      "breakdown": {
        "crop_production":       {"unskilled": 2200, "semi_skilled": 700, "skilled": 120, "professional": 15},
        "livestock":             {"unskilled": 900,  "semi_skilled": 350, "skilled": 80,  "professional": 10},
        "irrigation":            {"unskilled": 300,  "semi_skilled": 100, "skilled": 25,  "professional": 5},
        "post_harvest_processing": {"unskilled": 250, "semi_skilled": 80, "skilled": 15, "professional": 0}
      },
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note": "Duhok's rural periphery and proximity to agricultural land make this sector significant. Yazidi IDPs from Sinjar carry strong agricultural backgrounds."
    },
    "services": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-SVC",
      "total_supply": 10500,
      "breakdown": {
        "hospitality":  {"unskilled": 1400, "semi_skilled": 550, "skilled": 120, "professional": 20},
        "food_service":  {"unskilled": 2200, "semi_skilled": 800, "skilled": 180, "professional": 25},
        "retail":       {"unskilled": 1800, "semi_skilled": 650, "skilled": 150, "professional": 30},
        "cleaning":     {"unskilled": 2000, "semi_skilled": 250, "skilled": 20,  "professional": 0},
        "security":     {"unskilled": 500,  "semi_skilled": 200, "skilled": 50,  "professional": 5}
      },
      "confidence": "medium"
    },
    "digital_it": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-DIG",
      "total_supply": 1200,
      "confidence": "low",
      "note": "Smaller urban economy than Erbil limits digital sector. Pool concentrated in semi-skilled data entry and basic computing."
    },
    "healthcare": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-HLT",
      "total_supply": 420,
      "confidence": "low",
      "note": "Camp health clinics have trained community health workers (IDP and refugee). Significant shortage of female health professionals documented in IOM/UNHCR IDP Update."
    },
    "transport_logistics": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-TRN",
      "total_supply": 2400,
      "confidence": "medium"
    },
    "professional": {
      "entity_id": "SKILL-PRO",
      "total_supply": 750,
      "breakdown": {
        "teaching": {"skilled": 250, "professional": 120},
        "translation_interpretation": {"skilled": 150, "professional": 60},
        "accounting": {"skilled": 80, "professional": 40},
        "legal": {"skilled": 20, "professional": 10}
      },
      "confidence": "low"
    }
  }
}

{
  "governorate": "Sulaymaniyah",
  "entity_id": "GEO-SUL",
  "working_age_total_est": {
    "refugees_working_age": 23100,
    "idps_working_age": 7150
  },
  "skills_supply": {
    "construction":        {"total_supply": 5800,  "confidence": "low"},
    "manufacturing":       {"total_supply": 1900,  "confidence": "low"},
    "agriculture":         {"total_supply": 3400,  "confidence": "low",  "note": "Arbat and Said Sadeq areas have agricultural land access. Post-harvest processing skills limited."},
    "services":            {"total_supply": 7200,  "confidence": "medium", "note": "Sulaymaniyah city's service economy is second to Erbil in KRI. Higher proportion of urban refugees in retail/hospitality."},
    "digital_it":          {"total_supply": 1500,  "confidence": "low",  "note": "University of Sulaymaniyah produces IT graduates; some refugee access to tertiary education via DAFI scholarships."},
    "healthcare":          {"total_supply": 350,   "confidence": "low"},
    "transport_logistics": {"total_supply": 1600,  "confidence": "low"},
    "professional":        {"total_supply": 650,   "confidence": "low",  "note": "Sulaymaniyah has strongest translation/interpretation supply due to Sorani-Kurmanji bilingual environment."}
  },
  "critical_finding": "JVA 2018 found that ZERO technical school graduates in Sulaymaniyah participated in employment activities. This signals severe skills-to-market mismatch in the vocational pipeline, not absence of skills per se."
}

{
  "governorates": ["Kirkuk", "Ninewa"],
  "entity_ids": ["GEO-KIR", "GEO-NIN"],
  "context": "Both are Federal Iraq governorates outside KRI. Refugee populations are small (combined ~7,500). IDP populations are more significant but primarily out-of-camp, and Ninewa is principally an area of origin/return rather than a hosting location. Skills supply estimates carry LOW confidence throughout due to limited dedicated assessments of displaced populations in these governorates.",
  "combined_working_age": {
    "refugees": 4125,
    "idps": 9540
  },
  "skills_supply_combined": {
    "construction":        {"total_supply": 3200,  "confidence": "low", "note": "Ninewa reconstruction drives demand but returnees face damaged infrastructure preventing stable employment."},
    "manufacturing":       {"total_supply": 800,   "confidence": "low"},
    "agriculture":         {"total_supply": 4100,  "confidence": "low", "note": "Ninewa plains historically agricultural. Climate degradation and water scarcity severely constrain sector."},
    "services":            {"total_supply": 2800,  "confidence": "low"},
    "digital_it":          {"total_supply": 350,   "confidence": "low"},
    "healthcare":          {"total_supply": 200,   "confidence": "low"},
    "transport_logistics": {"total_supply": 1200,  "confidence": "low"},
    "professional":        {"total_supply": 400,   "confidence": "low"}
  }
}

{
  "employment_status": {
    "refugees_kri": {
      "employed_formal": {
        "pct": 0.05,
        "est_count": 9543,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "note": "Formal employment requires KRI residency permit. Public sector jobs restricted to citizens only."
      },
      "employed_informal": {
        "pct": 0.38,
        "est_count": 72523,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "note": "Casual daily labor, small trade, unlicensed services. No contracts, no social protection."
      },
      "self_employed_micro_enterprise": {
        "pct": 0.08,
        "est_count": 15268,
        "confidence": "low",
        "note": "Small shops, food stalls, home-based production. Business registration legally possible but rarely formalized."
      },
      "unemployed_seeking": {
        "pct": 0.18,
        "est_count": 34353,
        "confidence": "medium"
      },
      "economically_inactive": {
        "pct": 0.31,
        "est_count": 59164,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "note": "Includes caregivers (predominantly women), students, disabled, discouraged workers. Female economic inactivity ~70% per ILO data."
      }
    },
    "idps_kri_camps": {
      "employed_any": {
        "pct": 0.22,
        "est_count": 10607,
        "confidence": "low",
        "note": "Camp-based IDPs have significantly lower employment rates. Limited mobility, documentation gaps."
      },
      "unemployed_seeking": {
        "pct": 0.35,
        "est_count": 16856,
        "confidence": "low"
      },
      "economically_inactive": {
        "pct": 0.43,
        "est_count": 20710,
        "confidence": "low"
      }
    },
    "primary_livelihood_activities": {
      "non_agricultural_casual_labor": {
        "rank": 1,
        "pct_of_employed": 0.45,
        "sectors": ["construction", "services"],
        "confidence": "high",
        "source": "DS-03"
      },
      "small_trade_retail": {
        "rank": 2,
        "pct_of_employed": 0.20,
        "sectors": ["services"],
        "confidence": "medium"
      },
      "agricultural_seasonal_labor": {
        "rank": 3,
        "pct_of_employed": 0.12,
        "confidence": "medium"
      },
      "food_service_hospitality": {
        "rank": 4,
        "pct_of_employed": 0.10,
        "confidence": "medium"
      },
      "skilled_trades": {
        "rank": 5,
        "pct_of_employed": 0.08,
        "sectors": ["construction", "manufacturing"],
        "note": "Electricians, welders, mechanics. Often working below qualification level.",
        "confidence": "medium"
      },
      "professional_services": {
        "rank": 6,
        "pct_of_employed": 0.05,
        "sectors": ["professional", "healthcare", "digital_it"],
        "confidence": "low"
      }
    },
    "skills_mismatch_indicators": {
      "working_below_qualification": {
        "pct_of_employed": 0.55,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "source": "DS-07",
        "qualitative_evidence": "NRC interviews: 'I worked out of my profession and the work was not compatible with my education, but I worked below my qualifications because I had no choice.' Multiple similar accounts across Erbil and Duhok."
      },
      "no_income_source": {
        "pct_of_households_erbil_duhok": 0.33,
        "confidence": "high",
        "source": "DS-03"
      }
    }
  }
}

{
  "barriers_matrix": {
    "legal_barriers": {
      "entity_id": "BARRIER-LEGAL",
      "barriers": {
        "public_sector_exclusion": {
          "description": "Iraqi law restricts public sector employment to citizens. This removes the largest, most stable employer from the accessible labor market for all displaced persons.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 5, "justification": "Absolute legal bar. KRI public sector is primary employer. No exceptions for refugees or IDPs from outside KRI."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 5, "justification": "Same legal framework as Erbil."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 5, "justification": "Same legal framework."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 5, "justification": "Federal Iraq law even more restrictive."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 5, "justification": "Federal Iraq law applies. Returnee IDPs may regain public sector access with documentation."}
          }
        },
        "work_permit_residency": {
          "description": "Syrian refugees require KRI residency permit (via UNHCR registration + Asayish security clearance) to legally work in private sector. Process documented as lengthy and bureaucratic.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 3, "justification": "System functions but delays common. 66% of refugees are urban and largely integrated. PC-MOI follow-up cards expanding in federal areas."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 3, "justification": "Similar to Erbil. Camp residents face additional mobility restrictions."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 3, "justification": "Smaller refugee population; less administrative backlog."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 4, "justification": "Federal territory. PC-MOI registration only expanded in mid-2024. Administrative instructions still being implemented."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 4, "justification": "Federal territory. Complex security environment adds barriers."}
          }
        },
        "credential_recognition": {
          "description": "Syrian educational and professional credentials (medical degrees, teaching certificates, technical qualifications) require Iraqi equivalency processes that are largely non-functional or inaccessible.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 4, "justification": "No systematic credential recognition pathway. Medical professionals cannot practice without Iraqi board equivalency. Teachers require curriculum adaptation."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 4, "justification": "Same framework gaps."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 4, "justification": "Same."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 5, "justification": "Federal credentialing even more restrictive."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 5, "justification": "Same federal framework; reconstruction creates demand for credentialed professionals that cannot be filled by unrecognized Syrian qualifications."}
          }
        },
        "business_registration": {
          "description": "Refugees can legally register businesses in KRI but face informal barriers and costs.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 2, "justification": "Legally permissible. Informal barriers (costs, navigating bureaucracy) remain."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 2, "justification": "Same legal framework."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 2, "justification": "Same."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 4, "justification": "Federal registration more complex for non-citizens."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 4, "justification": "Same federal constraints."}
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "practical_barriers": {
      "entity_id": "BARRIER-PRACT",
      "barriers": {
        "language_dialect": {
          "description": "Despite shared Kurdish identity, Kurmanji-speaking Syrians face adaptation challenges with Sorani Kurdish used in Erbil/Sulaymaniyah workplaces and formal institutions.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 3, "justification": "Sorani is dominant. Kurmanji speakers adapt over time but face initial barriers in formal/professional settings."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 1, "justification": "Kurmanji is dominant in Duhok. Minimal language barrier for Syrian Kurdish refugees."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 3, "justification": "Sorani dominant. Similar to Erbil."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 3, "justification": "Arabic and Kurdish both used; multi-ethnic city. Arabic-speaking IDPs face fewer language barriers here."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 2, "justification": "Arabic is dominant. Syrian Arabic speakers face minimal barriers. Kurdish speakers may face challenges."}
          }
        },
        "transportation_mobility": {
          "description": "Camp-based populations face severe mobility constraints. Urban refugees face cost barriers to transportation.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 3, "justification": "Urban refugees relatively mobile. Camp residents (Darashakran, Kushtapa, Kawargosk, Barisma) face longer commutes to employment centers."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 4, "justification": "Domiz camp is semi-urban but other camps remote. Duhok city itself is smaller employment center than Erbil."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 3, "justification": "Arbat camp is accessible. City employment limited."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 3, "justification": "No camps. Urban IDPs have reasonable mobility."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 4, "justification": "Infrastructure damage constrains mobility. Rural areas particularly isolated."}
          }
        },
        "childcare_burden": {
          "description": "Female labor force participation suppressed by lack of affordable childcare. Dependency ratio ~0.82 for refugee households.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 4, "justification": "Female LFPR estimated 11-20%. IFC Care Arabia initiative launched but nascent. No public childcare accessible to refugees."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 4, "justification": "Same constraints. Camp settings exacerbate with limited facilities."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 4, "justification": "Same."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 4, "justification": "Same across Iraq."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 4, "justification": "Same."}
          }
        },
        "documentation_gaps": {
          "description": "Missing or inconsistent civil documents (birth certificates, marriage certificates, educational records) constrain formal employment and service access.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 2, "justification": "UNHCR registration widespread. 70% have core documents per survey. Passport holding only 30%."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 2, "justification": "Similar to Erbil."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 2, "justification": "Similar."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 3, "justification": "IDP documentation more fragmented. Camp closures disrupted registration processes."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 4, "justification": "IDPs with perceived ISIL affiliation face documentation seizure and denial. Sunni Arab IDPs particularly affected."}
          }
        },
        "digital_literacy": {
          "description": "Low digital literacy constrains access to emerging digital economy opportunities and online job-matching platforms.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 3, "justification": "Urban refugees have smartphone access. Functional digital literacy for job-seeking limited to ~15-20% of working age."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 4, "justification": "Higher camp population = lower digital access. Connectivity infrastructure weaker."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 3, "justification": "Similar to Erbil."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 4, "justification": "Infrastructure constraints."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 4, "justification": "Damaged telecom infrastructure."}
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "social_barriers": {
      "entity_id": "BARRIER-SOC",
      "barriers": {
        "employer_discrimination": {
          "description": "Despite shared Kurdish identity reducing overt ethnic discrimination, employers exploit refugee desperation through wage depression, contract avoidance, and poor working conditions.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 3, "justification": "Shared Kurdish identity mitigates ethnic discrimination but economic exploitation well-documented. Refugees accept sub-minimum wages due to lack of alternatives."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 3, "justification": "NRC documented systematic exploitation in Domiz area: unpaid wages, overtime without compensation, no contracts."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 3, "justification": "Similar dynamics. Smaller market limits alternatives."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 4, "justification": "Multi-ethnic tensions. Arab IDPs may face discrimination from Kurdish employers and vice versa."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 4, "justification": "Sectarian and ethnic tensions persist. Perceived ISIL affiliation creates severe discrimination for some IDP profiles."}
          }
        },
        "gender_norms": {
          "description": "Conservative social norms restrict female employment to limited sectors and settings. Reinforced by lack of childcare and safety concerns.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 4, "justification": "Female LFPR ~11-20% nationally. Cultural norms restrict acceptable female employment to education, healthcare, home-based work. Urban Erbil somewhat more permissive."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 4, "justification": "Slightly more conservative than Erbil. Camp settings reinforce traditional gender roles."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 3, "justification": "Historically most socially progressive KRI governorate. Slightly higher female economic participation."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 4, "justification": "Conservative norms."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 5, "justification": "Most conservative social environment. Yazidi women face compounded gender and trauma-related barriers."}
          }
        },
        "social_network_deficit": {
          "description": "Iraqi labor market heavily relies on personal connections (wasta) for job access. Refugees and recently displaced IDPs lack these networks.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 3, "justification": "8+ years average stay has built some networks. Newer arrivals (post-2019 Turkish offensive) still excluded."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 3, "justification": "Similar. Camp residents more isolated from host community networks."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 3, "justification": "Smaller community but also smaller job market."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 4, "justification": "Smaller refugee population = fewer community networks."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 4, "justification": "Returnee IDPs may have remnant networks but social cohesion damaged by conflict."}
          }
        },
        "psychosocial_trauma": {
          "description": "Conflict-related trauma, protracted displacement stress, and uncertainty about future affect work capacity and job-seeking behavior.",
          "severity": {
            "Erbil": {"score": 3, "justification": "Protracted displacement (avg 8+ years). Mental health support insufficient per IOM/UNHCR IDP Update."},
            "Duhok": {"score": 4, "justification": "Yazidi IDP population carries severe trauma from ISIL genocide. MHPSS services inadequate."},
            "Sulaymaniyah": {"score": 3, "justification": "General displacement trauma."},
            "Kirkuk": {"score": 3, "justification": "Camp closure anxiety documented."},
            "Ninewa": {"score": 5, "justification": "Active area of conflict damage. Returnees face secondary trauma from destroyed communities. Highest severity."}
          }
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

{
  "entity_registry": {
    "geographies": [
      {"id": "GEO-ERB", "label": "Erbil", "type": "governorate", "region": "KRI", "lat": 36.191, "lon": 44.009},
      {"id": "GEO-DUH", "label": "Duhok", "type": "governorate", "region": "KRI", "lat": 36.867, "lon": 43.009},
      {"id": "GEO-SUL", "label": "Sulaymaniyah", "type": "governorate", "region": "KRI", "lat": 35.556, "lon": 45.435},
      {"id": "GEO-KIR", "label": "Kirkuk", "type": "governorate", "region": "Federal", "lat": 35.468, "lon": 44.392},
      {"id": "GEO-NIN", "label": "Ninewa", "type": "governorate", "region": "Federal", "lat": 36.345, "lon": 43.145}
    ],
    "population_segments": [
      {"id": "POP-SYR-REF", "label": "Syrian Refugees", "type": "displacement", "parent": null},
      {"id": "POP-OTH-REF", "label": "Other Nationality Refugees", "type": "displacement", "parent": null},
      {"id": "POP-IDP", "label": "Internally Displaced Persons", "type": "displacement", "parent": null},
      {"id": "POP-REF-18-25", "label": "Refugees 18-25", "type": "age_band", "parent": "POP-SYR-REF"},
      {"id": "POP-REF-26-40", "label": "Refugees 26-40", "type": "age_band", "parent": "POP-SYR-REF"},
      {"id": "POP-REF-41+", "label": "Refugees 41+", "type": "age_band", "parent": "POP-SYR-REF"},
      {"id": "POP-IDP-18-25", "label": "IDPs 18-25", "type": "age_band", "parent": "POP-IDP"},
      {"id": "POP-IDP-26-40", "label": "IDPs 26-40", "type": "age_band", "parent": "POP-IDP"},
      {"id": "POP-IDP-41+", "label": "IDPs 41+", "type": "age_band", "parent": "POP-IDP"},
      {"id": "POP-FEMALE", "label": "Female FDPs", "type": "gender", "cross_cuts": true},
      {"id": "POP-MALE", "label": "Male FDPs", "type": "gender", "cross_cuts": true},
      {"id": "POP-CAMP", "label": "Camp-based FDPs", "type": "setting", "cross_cuts": true},
      {"id": "POP-URBAN", "label": "Urban/Peri-urban FDPs", "type": "setting", "cross_cuts": true}
    ],
    "skill_sectors": [
      {"id": "SKILL-CON", "label": "Construction", "subsectors": ["civil", "electrical", "plumbing", "welding", "heavy_equipment"]},
      {"id": "SKILL-MFG", "label": "Manufacturing", "subsectors": ["cnc_machining", "assembly", "quality_control", "packaging"]},
      {"id": "SKILL-AGR", "label": "Agriculture", "subsectors": ["crop_production", "livestock", "irrigation", "post_harvest_processing"]},
      {"id": "SKILL-SVC", "label": "Services", "subsectors": ["hospitality", "food_service", "retail", "cleaning", "security"]},
      {"id": "SKILL-DIG", "label": "Digital/IT", "subsectors": ["data_entry", "basic_computing", "software_development", "network_maintenance"]},
      {"id": "SKILL-HLT", "label": "Healthcare", "subsectors": ["nursing", "pharmacy", "lab_tech", "community_health"]},
      {"id": "SKILL-TRN", "label": "Transport/Logistics", "subsectors": ["driving", "warehousing", "fleet_management"]},
      {"id": "SKILL-PRO", "label": "Professional", "subsectors": ["accounting", "teaching", "translation_interpretation", "legal"]}
    ],
    "skill_tiers": ["unskilled", "semi_skilled", "skilled", "professional"],
    "barrier_entities": [
      {"id": "BARRIER-LEGAL-PSE", "label": "Public Sector Exclusion", "type": "legal"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-LEGAL-WPR", "label": "Work Permit/Residency", "type": "legal"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-LEGAL-CRE", "label": "Credential Recognition", "type": "legal"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-LEGAL-BRG", "label": "Business Registration", "type": "legal"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-PRACT-LNG", "label": "Language/Dialect", "type": "practical"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-PRACT-TRN", "label": "Transportation/Mobility", "type": "practical"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-PRACT-CHD", "label": "Childcare Burden", "type": "practical"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-PRACT-DOC", "label": "Documentation Gaps", "type": "practical"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-PRACT-DIG", "label": "Digital Literacy", "type": "practical"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-SOC-EMP", "label": "Employer Discrimination", "type": "social"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-SOC-GEN", "label": "Gender Norms", "type": "social"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-SOC-NET", "label": "Social Network Deficit", "type": "social"},
      {"id": "BARRIER-SOC-PSY", "label": "Psychosocial Trauma", "type": "social"}
    ],
    "edge_types": [
      {"type": "HAS_SUPPLY", "from": "population_segment", "to": "skill_sector", "attributes": ["count", "skill_tier", "confidence"]},
      {"type": "LOCATED_IN", "from": "population_segment", "to": "geography", "attributes": ["count"]},
      {"type": "IMPACTED_BY", "from": "geography", "to": "barrier", "attributes": ["severity", "justification"]},
      {"type": "CONSTRAINS", "from": "barrier", "to": "skill_sector", "attributes": ["mechanism"]},
      {"type": "MATCHES", "from": "skill_sector", "to": "stream10_demand_category", "attributes": ["alignment_score"]}
    ]
  }
}

{
  "matching_schema": {
    "version": "1.0",
    "stream_9_output_format": {
      "key": "{governorate}:{sector}:{subsector}:{skill_tier}:{population_segment}",
      "value": {
        "supply_count": "integer",
        "confidence": "high|medium|low",
        "source_ids": ["string"],
        "barriers_applicable": ["barrier_entity_id"],
        "effective_supply_multiplier": "float (0.0-1.0)",
        "notes": "string"
      },
      "example_key": "Erbil:construction:civil:semi_skilled:SYR_M_26_40",
      "example_value": {
        "supply_count": 1800,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "source_ids": ["DS-03", "DS-07"],
        "barriers_applicable": ["BARRIER-LEGAL-PSE", "BARRIER-SOC-EMP"],
        "effective_supply_multiplier": 0.65,
        "notes": "Strong pre-displacement experience cohort. Wages depressed. No formal contracts typical."
      }
    },
    "stream_10_expected_input": {
      "key": "{governorate}:{sector}:{subsector}:{skill_tier}",
      "value": {
        "demand_count": "integer",
        "employer_count": "integer",
        "wage_range_usd_monthly": {"min": "float", "max": "float"},
        "formality": "formal|informal|mixed",
        "growth_trajectory": "growing|stable|declining",
        "willingness_to_hire_fdp": "high|medium|low",
        "accommodations_available": "boolean"
      }
    },
    "matching_operation": {
      "description": "For each matching key, compute: gap = demand_count - (supply_count × effective_supply_multiplier). Positive gap = unmet demand (opportunity). Negative gap = oversupply (competition). Factor in barrier severity and willingness_to_hire_fdp for actionable matching.",
      "output": {
        "match_score": "float (-1.0 to 1.0)",
        "gap_count": "integer",
        "priority_barriers_to_address": ["barrier_entity_id"],
        "intervention_type": "upskilling|barrier_removal|demand_creation|direct_placement"
      }
    },
    "taxonomy_alignment_verification": {
      "sectors_count": 8,
      "sectors": ["construction", "manufacturing", "agriculture", "services", "digital_it", "healthcare", "transport_logistics", "professional"],
      "skill_tiers": ["unskilled", "semi_skilled", "skilled", "professional"],
      "geographies": ["Erbil", "Duhok", "Sulaymaniyah", "Kirkuk", "Ninewa"],
      "population_segments": ["SYR_M_18_25", "SYR_F_18_25", "SYR_M_26_40", "SYR_F_26_40", "SYR_M_41+", "SYR_F_41+", "IDP_M_18_25", "IDP_F_18_25", "IDP_M_26_40", "IDP_F_26_40", "IDP_M_41+", "IDP_F_41+"],
      "confirmation": "This taxonomy matches Stream 10 demand-side classification exactly."
    }
  }
}