Competitive Landscape Analysis — EBRD Market Study Working Paper
Iraq's mobile telecommunications market is served by three private MNOs operating under 15-year national licences awarded in 2007 at USD 1.25 billion each. Total market revenue reached approximately USD 2.88 billion in 2025, with mobile penetration exceeding 103% and internet penetration at roughly 82%. A government-backed fourth operator—the National Mobile Telecommunications Company (NMTC)—was approved in March 2025 with an exclusive three-year 5G licence, though its launch was judicially suspended in October 2025.
The market is a de facto duopoly: Zain Iraq and Asiacell together command approximately 80% of subscribers and a comparable share of revenue. Korek Telecom, historically strong in the Kurdistan Region, has declined sharply from its 2015 peak of ~35% market share to below 17%, battered by the Agility/Orange arbitration, regulatory sanctions over unpaid fees, and chronic governance failures.
The regulatory environment is governed by the Communications and Media Commission (CMC), Iraq's independent regulator. The Ministry of Communications (MoC) operates two SOEs—the Iraqi Telecommunications and Post Company (ITPC) and the State Company for Internet Services (SCIS)—and controls the Al-Salam General Company through which the NMTC 5G venture is structured.
| Metric | Value (2025e) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Population | ~47 million | World Bank |
| Total mobile subscribers | ~48–50 million (incl. multi-SIM) | Operator reports |
| Mobile penetration | ~103% | GSMA / Mordor Intelligence |
| Internet penetration | ~82% | GSMA |
| Total MNO market revenue | ~USD 2.88 bn | Mordor Intelligence |
| Dominant technology | 4G LTE (3G/2G legacy still substantial) | OpenSignal |
| 5G status | Licence awarded to NMTC; trials only by MNOs | CMC / press |
| Tower count (est.) | ~20,000–25,000 nationwide | TowerXchange / analyst est. |
Zain Iraq is a subsidiary of Zain Group (Kuwait; listed on Boursa Kuwait). Zain Group holds a majority stake; a 25% tranche was listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) in compliance with licence terms. Zain Group is publicly traded and reports consolidated financials quarterly, making Zain Iraq the most transparent of the three MNOs. The Group is led by Vice-Chairman & CEO Bader Al-Kharafi.
Zain Iraq operates two key subsidiaries: Next Generation (digital services) and Horizon (enterprise/infrastructure), which have contributed to revenue diversification. The digital-first MVNO brand Oodi was launched in 2021 as a virtual 5G-ready lifestyle brand running on the 4.5G network, built in partnership with Matrixx Software.
| Metric | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (USD) | ~$910m (est.) | ~$1.08bn | $1.29bn (+20% YoY) |
| EBITDA (USD) | ~$380m | ~$442m | $473m (+7% YoY) |
| EBITDA margin | ~42% | ~41% | 37% |
| Net profit (USD) | ~$95m | ~$130m | $150m (+15% YoY) |
| Subscribers (mn) | ~18.5 | ~19.7 | 20.9 (+6% YoY) |
| Data % of revenue | ~35% | ~38% | ~40% (est.) |
FY 2025 revenue of USD 1.29 billion represented the strongest growth in the Zain Group portfolio. The 20% top-line surge was driven by sustained commercial momentum, deployment of ~1,000 new network sites, and revenue diversification through Oodi, Next Generation, and Horizon subsidiaries. EBITDA margin compression from 41% to 37% reflects the infrastructure investment cycle. Zain Group's consolidated CAPEX rose 40% group-wide to USD 1.5 billion (20% of revenue), though Iraq-specific capex is not separately disclosed.
Q1 2025 showed revenue of USD 286 million (+13% YoY), EBITDA of USD 105 million (37% margin), and net profit of USD 26 million (+73% YoY). Q3 2025 reached USD 342 million revenue (+20% YoY) with 20.4 million subscribers.
Zain Iraq launched 4G LTE commercially in September 2021 as the first operator in Iraq to do so, branding it as "4.5G+" services. The company operates on 900 MHz (GSM), 2100 MHz (UMTS/3G), and 1800 MHz (LTE) spectrum bands. In September 2024, Zain signed a three-year network modernisation accord with Nokia to upgrade its microwave transport backbone using E-band solutions, deploying approximately 3,000 high-capacity microwave links and reportedly increasing average cell throughput by 35%.
Network coverage extends across all 18 governorates, though the depth of 4G coverage varies significantly between urban centres (Baghdad, Basra, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah) and rural/contested areas. Zain Iraq has been characterised by OpenSignal (Jan 2025) as second-place across most experience metrics, winning both Consistency awards (Excellent Consistent Quality and Core Consistent Quality) but trailing Asiacell on speed, reliability, and coverage.
The Oodi MVNO operates on the same radio access network but targets a younger, digital-native demographic with data-centric bundles.
Zain Iraq's primary RAN and transport vendor is Nokia, with the September 2024 microwave modernisation deal being the most recent public contract. Nokia's Wavence portfolio is deployed for the backhaul layer. Historically, Zain Iraq has also utilised Huawei and Ericsson equipment across different network layers—a multi-vendor strategy common across Iraqi MNOs.
At the Ooredoo Group level (relevant as a benchmark), Huawei was selected for a group-wide core network upgrade announced at MWC 2024. Zain Group's broader vendor relationships include Nokia, Ericsson, and Huawei across different opcos.
Iraq is not subject to the same high-risk vendor restrictions as EU or Five Eyes markets, and Chinese vendors (Huawei and ZTE) operate freely. The EBRD should note that any assessment of high-risk vendor exposure in Iraq operates in a materially different regulatory context than European markets.
In December 2022, Zain Iraq finalised a landmark sale-and-leaseback (SLB) of 4,968 towers (some sources cite ~5,100) to TASC Towers Iraq, a subsidiary of Dubai-based TASC Towers Holding. This was the first major tower transaction in Iraq and one of the first pan-national SLB deals in the MENA region. The deal includes passive infrastructure (towers, shelters, generators, fuel tanks) while Zain retains all active infrastructure (radios, antennas, transmission, software).
TASC committed to a build-to-suit programme of 198 new sites in the first 12 months post-closing, with broader BTS commitments of 300–450 sites. TASC also manages Zain Iraq's supporting facilities including power generators.
Post-SLB, Zain Iraq has continued to deploy ~1,000 new sites in 2025 (per Zain Group FY 2025 reporting), though it is unclear whether these are TASC-built or Zain-owned greenfield sites.
Zain Cash (operated by Iraq Wallet, a March Holding subsidiary, licensed by the Central Bank of Iraq) is the flagship mobile money platform. Launched in 2016 using eServGlobal (now Comviva) technology, subsequently migrated to Temenos core banking and payments platform (announced May 2024). Key metrics as of late 2024/early 2025:
Adjacent businesses include Oodi (digital operator/MVNO), carrier billing partnerships with OTT platforms (Shahid VIP, STARZPLAY, Anghami Plus), and enterprise services via subsidiaries Next Generation and Horizon. Zain Group's broader fintech revenue grew 28% YoY group-wide in 2025.
Asiacell Communications PJSC is majority-owned by Ooredoo Group (Qatar; listed on Qatar Exchange). Ooredoo holds approximately 65% of Asiacell, with a 25% tranche listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. The remaining ~10% is held by local shareholders, including founding investors. Headquartered in Sulaymaniyah, Asiacell is the longest-operating GSM provider in Iraq, having launched in 1999 in Kurdistan before securing a national licence in 2007.
Ooredoo Group's consolidated financials provide Asiacell data in Qatari Riyals, occasionally creating reconciliation challenges against IQD-denominated local disclosures. Asiacell's Chairman is Faruk Mustafa Rasool.
In June 2025, Asiacell signed an MoU with China Mobile International (CMI) for B2B and enterprise digital solutions, signalling a deepening commercial relationship with Chinese partners.
| Metric | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (IQD trn) | ~1.49 | 1.659 (+11% YoY) | 1.872 (+12.8% YoY) |
| Revenue (QAR mn) | 3,700 | ~4,450 | 5,164 (+16% YoY) |
| Revenue (USD mn, est.) | ~1,015 | ~1,220 | ~1,420 |
| EBITDA (IQD bn) | ~644 | 728 (+13%) | 860 (+18.1%) |
| EBITDA (QAR mn) | ~1,748 | ~1,946 | 2,374 (+22% YoY) |
| EBITDA margin | ~43% | ~44% | ~46% |
| Net profit (IQD bn) | ~265 | 352 (+33%) | 394 (+12%) |
| Subscribers (mn) | 17.1 | 17.7 (+3.5%) | 19.1 (+8%) |
Asiacell's FY 2024 performance showed double-digit growth across all key metrics, with a particularly strong EBITDA margin expansion to 46%. Revenue in Ooredoo Group reporting (QAR 5,164 million) makes Asiacell one of the Group's largest contributors. The 8% subscriber growth to 19.1 million has effectively closed the gap with Zain Iraq's subscriber count, and by some counting methodologies Asiacell may now rival or exceed Zain on active users.
Note: QAR-to-USD conversion uses approximate rate of QAR 3.64/USD. IQD-to-USD conversion uses official rate ~IQD 1,310/USD but actual market rates vary, creating reconciliation discrepancies between parent and subsidiary reporting.
Asiacell operates 8,201 LTE sites nationwide (per Mordor Intelligence, citing 2024 data), giving it the largest disclosed 4G footprint among Iraqi MNOs. The company advertises "deep-indoor" coverage and has won all nine OpenSignal awards in the January 2025 Iraq report — Download Speed, Upload Speed, Reliability, Consistent Quality, Coverage, Video, Games, 4G Availability, and 4G Coverage Experience.
Asiacell operates on 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, and 2100 MHz bands. It has piloted 5G non-standalone (NSA) services for enterprise clients in Erbil's oil-service corridor, though commercial 5G launch is contingent on spectrum allocation by the CMC.
Vendor partnerships span multiple suppliers. In August 2021, Asiacell signed a five-year deal with Nokia to upgrade its microwave network using the Wavence portfolio (~3,000 links). It has an ongoing partnership with Ericsson for LTE RAN expansion and modernisation (Ericsson Radio System hardware). At the parent level, Ooredoo Group signed a deal with Huawei at MWC 2024 for a group-wide core network upgrade, which is expected to encompass Asiacell's core.
Asiacell has 21,000+ points of sale and outlets across the country.
AsiaHawala, launched December 2015 as Iraq's first mobile money service, powered by Comviva's mobiquity platform. Licensed by the Central Bank of Iraq. Services include P2P transfers, salary/pension/aid receipt, bill payments, e-vouchers, merchant payments, and mobile top-up. AsiaHawala is notably used by humanitarian agencies (UNHCR, WFP) for cash assistance disbursement to refugees and internally displaced populations.
Asiacell launched Shofha ("Watch it"), an OTT video portal for Arabic content. The company has also partnered with Google Cloud (November 2025) to bring Google Workspace, Gemini Enterprise, and Google NotebookLM to Iraqi businesses and educational institutions. A partnership with Evam implements AI-driven real-time customer engagement across channels.
Korek Telecom Company LLC is a private, unlisted company headquartered in Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Founded in 2000 by Sirwan Saber Barzani (also known as Sirwan Saber Mustafa), a nephew of former KRG President Massoud Barzani. Barzani currently holds approximately 75% of Korek following the reversal of Orange/Agility's 44% stake by the CMC in 2014. Remaining shares are held by co-founders including Jawshin Hassan Jawshin Barazany and Jiqsy Hamo Mustafa.
Korek's governance is defined by the catastrophic Agility/Orange arbitration saga:
The cumulative arbitration exposure exceeds USD 3 billion, dwarfing Korek's estimated annual revenue and creating existential risk for the company.
Korek is a private company and does not publish audited financials. Available data points:
| Metric | Estimate / Source |
|---|---|
| Revenue (2025/2026 est.) | ~USD 470–475m (RocketReach, unverified) |
| Subscribers (2022) | ~8.2 million (BuddeComm) |
| Market share (2022) | ~18.9% (down from 34.8% in 2015) |
| Employee count | ~2,500 (PitchBook) |
| Licence fee status | CMC ordered ~USD 800m in unpaid fees (2023) |
| Arbitration liability | >USD 3bn (ICC awards, enforcement pending) |
Korek historically dominated Kurdistan and had a substantial presence in northern Iraq but has lost ground across federal Iraq. The company launched 4G services in 2021 — later than both competitors — and reportedly without a formal 4G licence from the CMC, adding to its regulatory difficulties. OpenSignal's January 2025 report shows Korek winning no awards, though it placed second in Availability and both Consistency categories.
In late 2023, the CMC temporarily blocked Korek's interconnection with other operators over unpaid fees, pushing subscribers to acquire second SIMs from Zain or Asiacell, or switch entirely. This accelerated subscriber losses. Korek differentiates through Kurdish-language content bundles and partnerships with regional OTT providers, but lacks the enterprise strategy of its larger rivals.
Korek has stated a need for approximately 2,500 additional tower sites, suggesting significant coverage deficits relative to Zain and Asiacell.
Iraq's tower market is in early-stage transition from operator-owned to independent towerco models. The country is estimated to have 20,000–25,000 macro tower sites across all three MNOs, though comprehensive audit data does not exist publicly.
TASC Towers Holding (Dubai, founded 2017) completed its SLB deal with Zain Iraq for ~5,000 towers in December 2022. TASC currently operates approximately 8,700 towers across Jordan and Iraq combined (per TowerXchange Q4 2024 estimates), making it the first and only independent towerco in Iraq.
In December 2023, Ooredoo Group, Zain Group, and TASC announced the creation of a "New TASC" entity — the largest towerco in the MENA region — combining ~30,000 towers across Qatar, Kuwait, Algeria, Tunisia, Iraq, and Jordan. Ooredoo and Zain will each hold 49.3% of the enlarged entity; TASC founders (Digital Infrastructure Assets LLP) retain 1.4%. The estimated enterprise value is USD 2.2 billion with projected run-rate revenue of ~USD 500 million and EBITDAaL exceeding USD 200 million.
Market closings are phased by country, with Qatar expected first (~mid-2024) followed by other markets through December 2025. The Iraq portion involves merging Ooredoo/Asiacell's towers into the TASC vehicle — creating a single-entity tower market serving all three MNOs. As of April 2026, the exact status of the Ooredoo–Iraq tower transfer to TASC has not been publicly confirmed as closed.
| Parameter | Iraq (Est.) | MENA Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Total towers | ~20,000–25,000 | — |
| Towerco-owned | ~5,000 (TASC/Zain SLB) | — |
| Tenancy ratio (TASC Iraq) | ~1.1x (est.) | 1.3–1.5x (mature MENA) |
| Korek tower ownership | Fully self-owned (no SLB) | — |
| Asiacell tower ownership | Mostly self-owned (pending TASC merger) | — |
| Build-to-suit pipeline | 198 initial (TASC), 2,500 (Korek need) | — |
Iraq was highlighted by TowerXchange as having "massive consolidation potential" — the low tenancy ratio (~1.1x) compared to mature MENA markets (1.3–1.5x) and the existence of three MNO portfolios, only one of which has been transferred to a towerco, presents significant colocation and decommissioning opportunities.
Energy management is one of the most significant operational challenges for tower infrastructure in Iraq. Grid power availability in many areas is estimated at only 8–12 hours per day, requiring diesel generators as primary or backup power. TASC inherited Zain's energy equipment (generators, battery systems, fuel infrastructure) as part of the SLB and manages power provision as a service to tenants.
There is no confirmed ESCO (Energy Service Company) partnership in Iraq to date. In more mature towerco markets, ESCOs manage the transition from diesel to hybrid (solar+battery+diesel) solutions, achieving 30–50% fuel savings. This represents a significant decarbonisation opportunity aligned with EBRD climate objectives.
Iraq's fibre infrastructure is underdeveloped relative to regional peers. The Ministry of Communications reports expanding fibre lines from 1 million to 4.5 million (with 1.5 million active). Fixed broadband penetration remains very low. Key wholesale infrastructure initiatives:
Operates domestic fixed-line and wholesale fibre backbone infrastructure. Historically the monopoly provider of landline services. ITPC controls key interconnection and transit points and participates in the Zajil–Europe corridor project. ITPC's role as wholesale backbone provider gives it significant market power in the upstream/wholesale layer, though its commercial agility and service quality are widely regarded as lagging the private sector.
Provides wholesale internet capacity to ISPs and institutional users. Minister of Communications Hayam Al-Yasiri has stated that the ministry expanded fibre lines from 1 million to 4.5 million. SCIS controls a bottleneck on international internet bandwidth, and complaints about service quality and pricing are widespread.
Al-Salam is a Ministry of Communications entity that received the 5G operating licence. In March 2025, the Cabinet approved the National Mobile Telecommunications Company (NMTC) as a private limited entity with equal one-third ownership by Al-Salam, the State Employees' Pension Fund, and the Trade Bank of Iraq (TBI). Key features:
The NMTC represents the most significant structural intervention in Iraq's telecom market since the 2007 licence awards. If it proceeds, it will be the first state-backed MNO competing directly with three private operators, with a privileged spectrum position (exclusive 5G for three years). The existing MNOs — particularly Zain, whose CFO publicly described the competitive playing field as "unfair" even before the NMTC — view this as market-distorting.
Communications Minister Al-Yasiri has framed telecoms as "Iraq's next oil" in terms of revenue potential, explicitly positioning NMTC as a vehicle for retaining telecom profits within the public sector.
Under standard SMP analysis frameworks, both Zain Iraq and Asiacell likely meet SMP thresholds in the retail mobile market (each exceeding 35–40% subscriber share). However, the CMC has not, to public knowledge, conducted a formal SMP designation or imposed ex-ante remedies. The introduction of NMTC with exclusive 5G access would create a de facto SMP entity in the 5G layer from day one, absent competitive entry for three years.
Vendor financing — where equipment suppliers provide credit, deferred payment, or revenue-sharing arrangements to MNOs — is a globally significant dynamic, particularly in markets where operator balance sheets are constrained or where access to conventional project finance is limited. Iraq presents exactly these conditions.
The three dominant RAN/core vendors serving Iraq — Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia — all offer vendor financing, though their terms and state-backing differ materially:
In Iraq, vendor financing takes on additional dimensions:
Iraq's smartphone market generated approximately USD 2.1 billion in revenue in 2024 (Statista), with expected annual growth of ~1.2%. Android devices dominate overwhelmingly, driven by affordable Chinese and Korean brands (Samsung, Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo, Realme). Apple maintains a premium niche in urban centres. The handset market is served primarily through independent retailers, with operators playing a limited direct-sales role compared to more mature markets.
With GDP per capita of approximately USD 5,500 (IMF 2024), and the cheapest internet-enabled smartphones costing USD 50–80, device affordability remains a binding constraint on mobile internet adoption and data ARPU growth. Key dynamics:
Formal device financing by Iraqi MNOs is nascent compared to African and South Asian markets where operators like Safaricom (Lipa Mdogo Mdogo) and Vodacom (Easy2Own) have scaled pay-as-you-go smartphone programmes. The key challenges in Iraq include:
Independent retailers (e.g., Elryan, local electronics shops) dominate handset sales and may offer informal instalment arrangements, but these are unstructured and do not generate the data needed for systematic credit assessment.
The following entity–relationship data is structured for import into graph analysis tools (Neo4j, NetworkX, etc.). Each entity is typed and relationships are directional.
| Entity | Type | Jurisdiction |
|---|---|---|
| Zain Iraq | company:mno | Iraq |
| Zain Group | company:holding | Kuwait |
| Asiacell | company:mno | Iraq |
| Ooredoo Group | company:holding | Qatar |
| Korek Telecom | company:mno | Iraq (KRI) |
| Sirwan Barzani | individual | Iraq (KRI) |
| TASC Towers Iraq | company:towerco | UAE/Iraq |
| TASC Towers Holding | company:towerco | UAE |
| Digital Infrastructure Assets LLP | company:investment | UAE |
| NMTC | company:soe_mno | Iraq |
| Al-Salam General Co | company:soe | Iraq |
| ITPC | company:soe | Iraq |
| SCIS | company:soe | Iraq |
| CMC | institution:regulator | Iraq |
| Ministry of Communications | institution:government | Iraq |
| Trade Bank of Iraq | company:state_bank | Iraq |
| State Employees' Pension Fund | institution:fund | Iraq |
| Nokia | company:vendor | Finland |
| Ericsson | company:vendor | Sweden |
| Huawei | company:vendor | China |
| Vodafone | company:operator | UK |
| Zain Cash / Iraq Wallet | company:fintech | Iraq |
| March Holding | company:holding | Jordan/Iraq |
| AsiaHawala | company:fintech | Iraq |
| Agility Public Warehousing | company:logistics | Kuwait |
| Orange SA | company:operator | France |
| Iraq Telecom Limited | company:jv | UAE/Kuwait |
| Oodi | company:mvno | Iraq |
The following gaps cannot be filled from public sources and require structured interviews with operators, regulators, vendors, and/or towerco management.
| Gap | Required Source | EBRD Workstream |
|---|---|---|
| Vendor composition by network layer (core/RAN/transport) — all 3 MNOs | MNO CTOs, vendor country managers | High-risk vendor assessment |
| Korek Telecom audited financials (any period) | Korek management, CMC, ISX | Competition analysis |
| CMC spectrum allocation table — exact MHz per operator per band | CMC Spectrum Dept | Competition, 5G readiness |
| NMTC business plan, vendor selection, capex projections | MoC, Al-Salam, Vodafone Iraq team | SOE/SMP, market entry |
| Vendor financing terms (credit, deferred payment, revenue-share) — all 3 MNOs | MNO CFOs, vendor finance teams | Vendor financing workstream |
| ITPC/SCIS wholesale pricing, interconnection terms | ITPC/SCIS, CMC | Wholesale market, SMP |
| Gap | Required Source | EBRD Workstream |
|---|---|---|
| Iraq-specific CAPEX for Zain Iraq and Asiacell | MNO CFOs, Zain/Ooredoo IR | Investment analysis |
| ARPU breakdown (voice/data/VAS) per MNO | MNO commercial teams | Revenue modelling |
| Asiacell total site count (all technologies) & TASC merger status | Asiacell CTO, TASC | Tower market |
| Tower tenancy ratios by region (federal Iraq vs. KRI) | TASC Iraq management | Tower market |
| ESCO partnerships, diesel consumption, hybrid/solar deployment | TASC, MNO ops teams | Energy, ESG |
| Zain Cash & AsiaHawala full KPIs (active wallets, MAU, TPV) | Zain Cash, Asiacell | Fintech, financial inclusion |
| Device financing programme details (any MNO) | MNO commercial, handset OEMs | Handset affordability |
| Korek arbitration enforcement status & operational continuity plans | Korek legal, CMC | Competition, market exit risk |
| KRI-specific regulatory environment (local ISP licensing, WiMAX operators) | KRG Telecom authority | Regional competition |
| Gap | Required Source |
|---|---|
| GSMA Intelligence Iraq dataset (affordability index, usage gap, coverage gap) | GSMA Intelligence subscription |
| CMC annual reports and licence condition documents | CMC publications |
| OpenSignal detailed network data beyond published report | OpenSignal commercial |
| Handset IMEI registration platform implementation status | CMC, contracted company |
| Starlink entry discussions — status and regulatory pathway | MoC, CMC |
EBRD Market Study Working Paper — Competitive Landscape v1.0 | April 2026
Compiled from public sources. Contains estimates and analyst assessments that require validation through field research.
Classification: DRAFT — Not for external distribution without EBRD approval.