For TP.2.1b — Market Study: Telecoms, Digital Infrastructure and Technology Sectors in Iraq
Step 1: Inception (Weeks 1–3)
Mobilise the core project team, establish internal coordination protocols, and confirm security and logistics arrangements for subsequent field missions in both federal Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
Convene a formal Inception Meeting with the EBRD project team to align on study scope, analytical priorities, deliverable formats, data-sharing protocols, and stakeholder access facilitation — including any introductions the Bank can broker with CMC, MNO leadership, and KRG counterparts.
Develop the detailed research framework, specifying analytical dimensions (market structure, regulatory environment, technology landscape, investment opportunity mapping) and the indicators, data sources, and benchmarking criteria to be applied to each.
Design semi-structured interview protocols tailored to distinct stakeholder categories (regulators, MNOs, infrastructure operators, value-added service providers, DFI counterparts), incorporating EBRD transition-impact criteria as a through-line.
Map the full stakeholder universe and produce a prioritised engagement plan, distinguishing between Baghdad-based federal institutions, Erbil/Sulaymaniyah-based KRG authorities, and international actors accessible remotely.
Compile a secondary data inventory, cataloguing available sources (ITU, GSMA Intelligence, Opensignal, World Bank, OECD, operator annual reports, CMC publications) and identifying critical data gaps that will require primary collection.
Prepare and deliver the Inception Report, documenting the agreed research framework, work plan, stakeholder engagement calendar, and quality assurance procedures.
Key Milestone / Deliverable: Inception Report delivered and approved by EBRD, confirming the research framework, stakeholder engagement plan, and work plan.
Step 2: Desk Research and Secondary Data Review (Weeks 2–6)
Conduct a systematic review of Iraq's regulatory and policy architecture, covering CMC licensing frameworks, spectrum allocation plans, interconnection regimes, numbering administration, cybersecurity draft legislation, and the status of the long-anticipated telecommunications law.
Compile quantitative market data from international databases (ITU World Telecommunication Indicators, GSMA Intelligence, Opensignal performance metrics, World Bank Digital Development indicators) and triangulate with locally published CMC statistics to construct a reliable sector baseline.
Analyse operator-level financial and operational performance using publicly available disclosures from Zain Iraq (Zain Group annual reports, Boursa Kuwait filings), Asiacell (Ooredoo Group reporting), and any accessible Korek Telecom data, supplemented by analyst commentary.
Map the technology and infrastructure landscape across both federal and KRG territories, covering 4G/LTE population coverage, 5G trial activity, fibre-to-the-home and backbone deployment, data centre capacity, international connectivity (submarine cable landing rights, cross-border terrestrial links), and tower infrastructure ownership patterns.
Develop structured benchmarks against 3–4 comparable EBRD TMT investments and adjacent markets — such as Tunisie Telecom, Orange Egypt, Aztelekom (Azerbaijan), and Nigeria's Project BRIDGE — to contextualise Iraq's sector maturity, regulatory evolution, and investment readiness.
Assess alignment between Iraq's telecom sector trajectory and EBRD strategic frameworks, including the TMT Sector Strategy 2025–2029, the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Strategy (where applicable), and the forthcoming Iraq Country Strategy — identifying where potential investments could deliver the highest transition impact.
Synthesise desk research findings into a preliminary identification of data gaps, hypotheses for field testing, and early-stage signals of potential investment themes.
Key Milestone / Deliverable: Sector Baseline Report — a structured synthesis of secondary research forming the analytical foundation for primary data collection.
Step 3: Field Data Collection, Stakeholder Consultations, and Analytical Synthesis (Weeks 4–10)
Fieldwork Period (Weeks 4–8)
Conduct Key Informant Interviews with federal regulatory bodies — principally the Communications and Media Commission (CMC) and the Ministry of Communications — focusing on licensing reform timelines, spectrum refarming plans, infrastructure-sharing policy, and the regulatory environment for new market entrants.
Hold structured interviews with senior management at each of the three MNOs (Zain Iraq, Asiacell, Korek Telecom), exploring network investment plans, competitive dynamics, regulatory pain points, technology upgrade roadmaps, and appetite for external capital or strategic partnership.
Engage KRG telecommunications and ICT authorities in Erbil to understand the distinct regulatory, licensing, and infrastructure conditions in the Kurdistan Region, including any divergences from federal-level policy and KRG-specific digital development initiatives.
Consult value chain participants beyond the MNOs — including tower companies (e.g., TASC Towers), independent ISPs, data centre operators, satellite service providers, and emerging fintech/digital payments firms — to map the breadth of the digital infrastructure ecosystem and identify under-served segments.
Interview international stakeholders remotely and, where feasible, in-country: equipment vendors (Nokia, Ericsson, Huawei operations in Iraq), potential co-investors, and DFI counterparts (IFC, USAID, JICA) to gauge external investment sentiment and identify coordination opportunities.
Collect non-public data and qualitative intelligence on market dynamics not visible in secondary sources — including informal spectrum usage, grey-market ISP activity, real pricing (vs. published tariffs), and the practical impact of sanctions, foreign exchange constraints, and security conditions on infrastructure deployment.
Provide an interim progress update to the EBRD team (written briefing note or call), summarising fieldwork coverage, emerging findings, and any access or data constraints encountered.
Analytical Synthesis Period (Weeks 7–10)
Integrate primary and secondary research findings across all four analytical dimensions (market structure, regulation, technology, investment landscape), resolving data conflicts and weighting source reliability.
Perform cross-dimensional analysis to surface investment-relevant intersections — for example, where regulatory reform timelines align with infrastructure investment needs, or where technology gaps create commercially viable entry points for EBRD-supported transactions.
Identify, profile, and preliminarily rank investment opportunities against EBRD criteria: transition impact potential (competition, market expansion, skills transfer), policy engagement leverage, additionality, commercial viability, and environmental and social soundness.
Assess appropriate financial product structures for priority opportunities (equity, quasi-equity, senior/subordinated debt, guarantee instruments, policy dialogue packages), informed by comparable EBRD transactions and the specific risk profiles of each opportunity.
Prepare the Draft Market Study Report, comprising the full Sector Assessment and preliminary Investment Opportunities Assessment, structured for EBRD internal review and subsequent validation.
Key Milestone / Deliverable: Draft Market Study Report — including Sector Assessment and preliminary Investment Opportunities Assessment — submitted to EBRD for review and comment.
Step 4: Validation and Final Reporting (Weeks 10–12)
Facilitate a validation workshop with the EBRD project team and selected external stakeholders, presenting key findings, the sector assessment, and investment opportunity profiles in a format designed to elicit structured, actionable feedback.
Present the preliminary investment opportunity rankings and supporting rationale, inviting EBRD challenge on assumptions, risk assessments, and transition impact scoring — with particular attention to the feasibility of near-term vs. medium-term pipeline entries.
Collect and incorporate written and verbal feedback from the validation process, tracking all comments and documenting how each has been addressed or, where relevant, why a finding has been maintained.
Finalise the investment opportunity rankings and associated financial product recommendations, reflecting validation feedback and any updated intelligence received during the review period.
Subject the full report to a structured quality assurance review — covering analytical rigour, internal consistency, EBRD style and terminology compliance, and factual verification — followed by professional editing.
Deliver the Final Market Study Report, accompanied by a standalone Executive Summary and a set of self-contained Investment Opportunity Profiles suitable for circulation within EBRD's banking teams.
Key Milestone / Deliverable: Final Market Study Report + Executive Summary + Investment Opportunity Profiles — all deliverables finalised, quality-assured, and submitted to EBRD.
Editorial Decisions
Dual-region threading: Federal Iraq and KRG are surfaced as distinct operational and analytical realities in Steps 1, 2, and 3 — not treated as a footnote — reflecting the genuine complexity of working across both jurisdictions.
Both study components served throughout: Activities in every phase explicitly serve both the Sector Assessment (analytical, diagnostic) and the Investment Opportunities Assessment (evaluative, forward-looking), avoiding the common trap of treating opportunity identification as a late-stage afterthought.
Named sources and counterparts: Specific databases, operator entities, benchmarking comparators, and stakeholder types are named where possible to demonstrate familiarity rather than relying on generic descriptors. Benchmark comparators (Tunisie Telecom, Orange Egypt, Aztelekom, Project BRIDGE) are drawn from the outline to maintain coherence.
Operational realism without over-specification: Activities reference security logistics, grey-market dynamics, FX constraints, and sanctions impact — signalling awareness of Iraq's operating environment — without converting the work plan into a risk register or project management artefact.
Transition impact as a through-line: EBRD transition impact criteria (competition, market expansion, skills transfer, policy engagement) are embedded as analytical lenses from interview protocol design (Step 1) through opportunity ranking (Steps 3–4), demonstrating alignment with the Bank's investment logic rather than treating it as a checklist at the end.