Illustrative Investment Opportunities

Zain Iraq is the country's largest mobile operator by revenue ($1.1B, 11% year-on-year growth) and has an active network modernisation programme with Nokia. A dedicated financing facility could support the transition from 4G to 5G across urban and semi-urban coverage areas, enabling enterprise connectivity and reducing Iraq's dependence on satellite and imported bandwidth. Zain's balance sheet and revenue trajectory make it the most conventionally bankable MNO in the Iraqi market.

Strong transition impact through infrastructure modernisation and competitive market development. Clear financial viability given Zain's revenue base and growth trajectory. Policy engagement potential around spectrum allocation and 5G licensing conditions.

Detailed financial profile of Zain Iraq (revenue, EBITDA, capex trajectory, debt capacity), market sizing of the 5G enterprise and consumer segments, regulatory risk assessment of spectrum allocation timelines, and benchmarking against comparable EBRD MNO transactions in the SEMED region.

Asiacell (Ooredoo subsidiary) has the strongest network quality metrics in Iraq and has already deployed a 5G pilot in Erbil alongside multi-access edge computing (MEC) nodes in Baghdad. The operator is positioning itself for the enterprise and institutional connectivity segment — oil and gas, banking, government — which remains largely unserved by dedicated digital infrastructure. A structured financing could accelerate this enterprise pivot and MEC rollout.

High transition impact through private-sector enterprise digitalisation and competitive differentiation in the operator market. Ooredoo's institutional backing provides a credible repayment pathway and co-investment capacity.

Enterprise connectivity demand analysis (segmented by oil/gas, financial services, government), competitive positioning assessment versus Zain and prospective state-owned entrants, MEC infrastructure cost modelling, and evaluation of Ooredoo Group's cross-border synergies with regional EBRD portfolio companies.

The Fibre-in-the-Gulf (FIG) cable system, landing at Al-Faw and jointly developed by Ooredoo and ITPC, will deliver over 700 terabits of capacity connecting the GCC to Europe through Iraqi territory. This positions Iraq as a potential international data transit corridor — a structural shift from its current status as a connectivity importer. The project requires substantial last-mile and interconnection infrastructure to realise its domestic economic benefits.

Significant transition impact: transforms Iraq's role in regional digital infrastructure from consumer to intermediary. Strong policy engagement around open-access frameworks, transit pricing regulation, and cross-border data governance. The public-private structure (ITPC + Ooredoo) creates scope for institutional capacity building.

Transit revenue modelling and pricing benchmarks from comparable corridors (Turkey, Egypt), assessment of interconnection infrastructure gaps between Al-Faw landing and domestic backbone, analysis of open-access and wholesale regulatory frameworks, and risk mapping of the ITPC governance structure.

Iraq has deployed approximately 4.5 million FTTH lines, of which only 1.5 million are active, against a government target of 6 million. The gap between deployed and activated lines suggests both demand-side constraints (pricing, digital literacy) and supply-side challenges (last-mile completion, CPE provisioning). A dedicated FTTH infrastructure financing — potentially through an independent fibre company (FibreCo) or infrastructure-sharing vehicle — could accelerate deployment while improving capital efficiency across operators.

Core transition impact through broadband access expansion, with downstream effects on digital inclusion, e-government, and private sector productivity. Policy engagement around infrastructure sharing, open-access regulation, and universal service obligations.

Geo-spatial analysis of deployed versus activated fibre by governorate, cost modelling for last-mile completion in urban and peri-urban areas, assessment of FibreCo / infrastructure-sharing structures from comparable EBRD markets (Jordan, Morocco), and demand-side analysis of the activation gap (pricing, digital literacy, CPE barriers).

Iraq's data centre market is nascent: current capacity is extremely limited, most enterprise data is hosted abroad or on-premises, and there is no carrier-neutral colocation facility of regional significance. As FIG submarine cable connectivity comes online and domestic fibre expands, demand for local hosting, content caching, and cloud on-ramps will grow substantially. Baghdad and Erbil represent the most viable initial locations given population density, enterprise concentration, and relative infrastructure readiness.

Transition impact through private-sector infrastructure development and enabling downstream digital services (cloud, SaaS, fintech). Carrier-neutral design promotes competitive market structure. Financial viability is contingent on anchor tenancy commitments, which the study would assess.

Data centre demand assessment (enterprise, government, content delivery network operators), power and connectivity infrastructure audit for candidate sites, competitive landscape analysis including regional players eyeing Iraqi market entry, and financial modelling of a phased build (initial 1–2 MW, expandable) with anchor tenancy scenarios.

Iraq's Communications and Media Commission (CMC) faces capacity constraints that affect licensing efficiency, spectrum management, and enforcement. With 5G deployment imminent and a potential fourth mobile operator (NMTC) entering the market, the CMC will need to manage increasingly complex spectrum allocation, interference management, and competitive oversight responsibilities. A technical cooperation programme — potentially paired with EBRD lending conditionality — would build institutional capacity while de-risking the broader investment environment.

Directly serves the policy engagement pillar. Creates enabling conditions for every other TMT investment by improving regulatory predictability and licensing transparency. Strong precedent in EBRD TC grants across SEMED telecoms regulators.

CMC organisational capacity assessment, gap analysis against ITU benchmarks for regulatory independence and spectrum management, roadmap for 5G spectrum assignment (band plan, auction design, timing), and identification of TC-eligible workstreams with scoped terms of reference for follow-on advisory mandates.

Iraq remains overwhelmingly cash-based: electronic payments penetration is among the lowest in the MENA region. Mobile money, merchant acquiring, and digital lending infrastructure are at an early stage, though regulatory appetite for modernisation is growing. EBRD's existing Star Venture programme in Iraq (launched February 2026) creates a complementary pipeline for fintech equity investments. A broader DFS infrastructure play — payment switches, interoperability layers, merchant acquiring networks — would address the foundational layer that individual fintechs require to scale.

Strong transition impact through financial inclusion and formal economic activity. Policy engagement around electronic payment regulation, KYC/AML frameworks, and central bank digital infrastructure planning. Synergies with existing EBRD Star Venture deal flow.

Digital payments market sizing (current volumes, growth trajectory, addressable segments), regulatory landscape assessment for e-money and mobile financial services licensing, mapping of existing infrastructure (payment switches, interbank clearing, mobile money rails), and identification of investable DFS platforms with analysis of MNO-led versus bank-led versus independent models.